Aston Villa’s European adventure is now guaranteed to continue into 2024, and with that, boss Unai Emery now knows what he needs to plan for in the new year.
Can Villa’s squad cope with a new year European push?
A top-four position was a realistic outside chance at the start of the season, and it still is. But with the prospect of a European trophy now on the horizon, where does Emery focus his ambitions in the new year?
In an ideal world, he would focus on both. But this isn’t an ideal world, and Villa doesn’t have a squad like Manchester City or Arsenal to call on.
In the latest betting to finish in the top four, Villa are 11/5, which makes them fifth favourites. To win the Europa Conference League, the Villans are 7/2 favourites. Their odds are shorter to finish in the top four, which is remarkable, given where the club was 12 months ago when Emery was appointed. Back then, fans would have been looking over their shoulders fearing the drop. Now, Premier League relegation odds of 1000/1 almost seem laughable.
Unai Emery & Aston Villa deal details ???????? #AVFC
▫️ Contracts signed on Monday night;
▫️ Long term deal/project;
▫️ Investments in 2023 to improve the squad;
▫️ Expected salary around €7m/year;
▫️ Release clause: €6m to Villarreal;
▫️ Joins on next week after work permit. pic.twitter.com/lywfflapjy
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) October 25, 2022
While Villa’s European dream could end at the first knockout stage, it could put Emery in a position of not knowing whether to stick or twist in the new year. But it does put the manager in a great position to go to the club’s board and ask for transfer funds come January.
It’s widely regarded throughout football that the best time to do transfers is in the summer transfer market. But needs must, and without being exposed to silly money deals, Villa must surely now step into the January transfer market to try and bolster the squad, with a chance of finishing in the top four and winning a European trophy, now a serious possibility. It would be silly not to.
Stick or twist?
This is where the stick or twist scenario emerges for Emery. Finishing in the top four secures Champions League football, and winning the Europa Conference League secures Europa League football – and it’s fair to say Emery has a good Europa League record.
So where does the club want to go? The options of the Europa League open up with a fifth-place finish. But at this stage of the club’s development, do they settle for the Europa League, or go for it and try and break the top four this year?
Hanging on to Emery is paramount
Hanging on to the services of Unai Emery also comes into the equation. The club could do a lot worse than follow his lead. He knows what he’s doing, and if he thinks it’s worth playing safe and not going for broke to get into the Champions League, the club would be well advised to listen.
No one will turn down a place in Europe’s elite competition. And the board will no doubt want the financial windfall.
Aston Villa told Unai Emery ‘lifetime contract confirmed’ after Real Union partnership #AVFChttps://t.co/0SnMNOOg7d
— Aston Villa News (@AVFC_News) November 29, 2023
But the bigger picture surely has to be hanging onto Emery. There is little point in the club thinking they know better than the Spaniard and blowing the whole season, and possibly pushing him into the hands of one of Villa’s rivals.
And who knows, Emery may well deliver a top-four finish and a European trophy without changing strategy – giving Villa fans the best of both worlds.
