After beating on the door to the premier league in the automatic promotion places, Derby County now find themselves scrapping it out in the dogfight for the last playoff place while Villa, on the other hand, have the fourth spot all sewn up so you could argue that Gary Rowett’s men have more to play for today.
THE OPPOSITION
After returning to the top six this week after beating automatic promotion hopefuls Cardiff, The Rams will be looking to cement their place in the playoffs with a win against Villa.
Derby has had a very up and down season with impressive results such as beating us earlier this season 2-0 and then following that result with a 3-0 win against Millwall, a 3-0 demolition of Middlesbrough, a 5-0 rout at home to Hull and more recently their 3-1 against Cardiff this week.
However, too many disappointing results have hindered Derby’s push for a higher finish this season such as 4-1 defeats to Bristol City and bottom place Sunderland as well as a 3-1 defeat to Burton who is sitting just one place off the bottom. You could have a very good argument that just like ourselves, Derby’s inconsistency has cost them and put them in the position they currently find themselves in.
Between game 14 and 40, The Rams have only dropped out of the top 6 once and were at one point sitting second for 5 consecutive games looking very strong promotion contenders. However, between the 2nd of January and the 31st of March, the Rams only registered 2 wins in 14 games effectively ending their push for top two.
These results show that Derby has the ability to be lethal on their day but if you catch Derby when they are having an off day, the potential is there for the floodgates to open.
Defensively, Derby has been fairly solid keeping the 3rd most clean sheets in the league with 19 behind Villa with 20 and Wolves with 23. They have conceded 46 goals during that period only 6 more than Steve Bruce’s men who pride themselves on their defensive solidity. Going forward, Derby has also been impressive scoring 65 goals this term which is again is only 6 behind Villa’s season tally.
So far this season, The Rams have been set up mainly in a 4-2-3-1 under Rowett with experienced defensive midfielders Joe Ledley and Tom Huddlestone allowing the team to get forward. The two deep-lying midfielders compliment each other well as both are very solid defensively and excellent distributors of the ball with Huddlestone known for his hugely powerful shot and excellent long passing whilst Ledley isn’t to bad himself this season sitting at 81.4% passing accuracy.
TEAM NEWS
Villa fans should feel optimistic as both captain John Terry and striker Jonathan Kodjia will be available after being rested in the win over Ipswich. Both were carrying minor knocks and were rested as a precaution.
There is further good news for Alan Hutton who is back training for this week but it is thought that today’s game has come too early for the Scottish defender.
Birkir Bjarnason joins long-term absentee Axel Tuanzebe (hamstring) on the sidelines as he picked up a calf injury this week.
Derby will travel to the West Midlands with a pretty much full strength side with only Ikechi Anya and Sam Winnall ruled out. The rest of the team should remain the same after their impressive win against Cardiff with Rowett having to make a decision to start Vydra or keep him on the bench.
THE BIG MATCH
Depending on how the final two games play out, we may see this East vs West Midlands match played again in a few weeks as a playoff semi-final. Not only will this be a race for both to teams to finish as high as they can to give themselves the best chance of Premier League football next season. It will also be a race for the golden boot with Derby’s Matej Vydra is currently on 20 goals after netting against Cardiff mid-week, whilst Villa’s Lewis Grabban is just behind him on 19 alongside Bristol City’s Bobby Reid.
The sharpshooting Vydra will certainly be the one that Villa’s defence will have to keep an eye on after the 19 cap Czech Republic international has been in sensational form this season scoring a goal every 132 minutes which is coincidentally second only to Lewis Grabban who is netting a goal every 127 minutes.
The fact that the next highest scorer for Derby is David Nugent sitting on just 8 goals this season, shows just how reliant the team are on Vydra’s goals so shutting him down as fast and efficiently as possible should be Villas top priority.
Creativity wise, Tom Lawrence tops the assist charts with 7 and ex-Villa man Andi Weimann is next with 5. Lawrence is making 1.6 key passes per game this term which is lower than Snodgrass and Grealish with 2.3 and 1.9 keep passes per game respectively, but equal to the effort of our midfield maestro Connor Hourihane.
TICKET INFORMATION
This game is completely sold out. Both Villa and Derby have sold all the tickets available. If you are looking for a ticket then it may be worth calling the Aston Villa ticket office to see if there have been any returns.
LIVE MATCH CHAT
Can’t make the game? Well, why not discuss the game on our Aston Villa forums with fellow Villa supporters.
